Our 2021 Outlook

I’m sure for most of you, if you are anything like myself, 2020 was a whirlwind of highs and lows, and everything in-between. We saw the rise of COVID, a nationwide shutdown, unheard-of stimulus bills, and political turmoil. Like most of you, I am looking forward to turning the page on 2020, and diving head-first into 2021 with the same attitude I entered 2020 with: This is going to be my year.

It is great to have a positive perspective, however,  having a rough insight on what to expect from the economy will give you a leg up on the upcoming year. This year, we know that we should expect anything. While the unknowns have become the center of attention, there are a few things that we can expect going forward.

•     Continued Fed support

o   The Fed responded to the pandemic by unleashing a quantitative easing program that over the last ¾ of the year, equaled the size of all three programs prior. We can expect this support to continue into the new year, aimed at stimulating the economy.

•     Unemployment Decline

o   The consensus expectation for unemployment is a decrease from the current rat of 6.7% to around 5%, however, with a new administration, a nationwide shutdown could be in the cards which makes this a big unknown going into 2021.

•   Global Demand Strength

o   The consensus outlook on global demand remains strong, signaling that economists expect for demand to increase for 2021 as compared to the previous year. What that looks like remains unknown, but the expectation is for the reopening of global economies jarring demand dramatically upward compared to the first two quarters of 2020.

•     Additional Stimulus Bills

o   With a new administration, and the potential to control all three chambers of government, we could be looking at additional stimulus bills aimed at curbing the effects of COVID-19. Because of the unknown at this time in the Senate, what this looks like in its entirety is unclear, but we can expect additional programs for unemployment, small businesses, and stimulus checks.

While it is a big relief to be out of 2020, with a sense that we are turning the corner on the pandemic, many people continue to be fearful of what is to come. One area that you shouldn’t be fearful is your investment portfolio, and in your financial plan. If you are paying an advisor a fee but are worrying, then we aren’t doing what you pay us to do, which is to give you faith in your plan and its execution. As your advisor, we are here to give you comfort in the absolute certainty that we are handling your portfolio with the same level of care and efficiency that we are our own, and that there will be market cycles, and we have built this into your plan from the beginning, and no down-turn is going to prevent us from reaching your goals, together.

So ease up, worry less about the granular details, and rest easy knowing that 2021 will be our year.

-Colin Feller, President